BG Pathum United 2–4 Kawasaki Frontale

BG Pathum United

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Kawasaki Frontale

10/24/2023

AFC Champions League · Group I - 3BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

BG Pathum United31%

×Draw22%

Kawasaki Frontale47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BG Pathum UnitedExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.93

BG Pathum United

1.55

Kawasaki Frontale

1.93

Kawasaki Frontale creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

2.10

creates per match

2.35

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

BG Pathum United

2.10

Kawasaki Frontale

2.35

allows per match

BG Pathum United

1.50

Kawasaki Frontale

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw

53%

BG Pathum United or Kawasaki Frontale

78%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

69%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

15%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

79%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

46%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

20%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

85%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

57%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

40%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 2.10 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + BG Pathum United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BG Pathum United scores more

31%

level

22%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

47%

Kawasaki Frontale at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff