BG Pathum United 4–0 Kamphaeng Phet: Result & Stats

BG Pathum United

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kamphaeng Phet

10/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

BG Pathum United85%

×Draw10%

Kamphaeng Phet5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BG Pathum UnitedExpected goals in this matchKamphaeng Phet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.46

0.80

BG Pathum United

3.46

Kamphaeng Phet

0.80

BG Pathum United creates 332% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

4.60

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

BG Pathum United

4.60

Kamphaeng Phet

1.00

allows per match

BG Pathum United

0.60

Kamphaeng Phet

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Kamphaeng Phet →

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw

95%

BG Pathum United or Kamphaeng Phet

90%

Draw or Kamphaeng Phet

15%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

68%

Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

97%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

85%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

65%

Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals

55%

Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals

19%

Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

94%

Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 4.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Kamphaeng Phet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 4.60 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.46

Kamphaeng Phet attack 1.00 + BG Pathum United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

BG Pathum United scores more

85%

level

10%

Kamphaeng Phet scores more

BG Pathum United at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff