BG Pathum United 2–4 Johor Darul Takzim FC

BG Pathum United

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Johor Darul Takzim FC

10/3/2023

AFC Champions League · Group I - 2BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

BG Pathum United54%

×Draw22%

Johor Darul Takzim FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BG Pathum UnitedExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.29

BG Pathum United

2.03

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.29

BG Pathum United creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

2.10

creates per match

1.08

1.50

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

BG Pathum United

2.10

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.08

allows per match

BG Pathum United

1.50

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw

76%

BG Pathum United or Johor Darul Takzim FC

78%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

46%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

32%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

87%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

60%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

33%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

72%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

37%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

69%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 2.10 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.03

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + BG Pathum United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

BG Pathum United scores more

54%

level

22%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

24%

BG Pathum United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff