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BG Pathum United vs Dynamic Herb Cebu — ASEAN Club Championship 2024

BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamic Herb Cebu
Dynamic Herb Cebu
1/28/2026ASEAN Club ChampionshipASEAN Club Championship · Group Stage - 4BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BG Pathum United74%
×Draw17%
Dynamic Herb Cebu10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BG Pathum United
2.31
Dynamic Herb Cebu
0.69

BG Pathum United creates 235% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

BG Pathum United
1.86
Dynamic Herb Cebu
0.25

allows per match

BG Pathum United
1.14
Dynamic Herb Cebu
2.75

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par
Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Dynamic Herb Cebu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw
90%
BG Pathum United or Dynamic Herb Cebu
83%
Draw or Dynamic Herb Cebu
26%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+
50%
Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals
90%
BG Pathum United 2+ goals
67%
BG Pathum United 3+ goals
40%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals
50%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals
15%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)
89%
Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 1.86 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 0.25 + BG Pathum United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

BG Pathum United scores more
74%
level
17%
Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more
10%

BG Pathum United at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BG Pathum United vs Dynamic Herb Cebu

BG Pathum United beat Dynamic Herb Cebu 2-0 in ASEAN Club Championship on January 28, 2026.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.