BG Pathum United 2–1 Army United: Result & Stats

BG Pathum United

FT

2 – 1

Army United

9/29/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 32LEO Stadium (Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

BG Pathum United63%

×Draw21%

Army United16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BG Pathum UnitedExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.84

BG Pathum United

1.94

Army United

0.84

BG Pathum United creates 131% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

2.53

creates per match

1.16

0.53

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

BG Pathum United

2.53

Army United

1.16

allows per match

BG Pathum United

0.53

Army United

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Army United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw

84%

BG Pathum United or Army United

79%

Draw or Army United

37%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

38%

Army United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

86%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

58%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

30%

Army United 1+ goals

57%

Army United 2+ goals

21%

Army United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

80%

Army United (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 2.53 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Army United attack 1.16 + BG Pathum United defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

BG Pathum United scores more

63%

level

21%

Army United scores more

16%

BG Pathum United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff