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BFC Preussen vs FSV Zwickau — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
Preview
13:00
FSV Zwickau
FSV Zwickau
11/1/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 15
45%
FSV Zwickau
model favours
34%21%45%
1–2
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

BFC Preussen34%
×Draw21%
FSV Zwickau45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Preussen
1.79
FSV Zwickau
2.08

FSV Zwickau creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

BFC Preussen
1.67
FSV Zwickau
2.00

allows per match

BFC Preussen
2.17
FSV Zwickau
1.91

finishing

BFC Preussen+0.00on par
FSV Zwickau+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Preussen ↓

FSV Zwickau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

BFC Preussen or draw
55%
BFC Preussen or FSV Zwickau
79%
Draw or FSV Zwickau
66%

Winning margin

BFC Preussen wins by 2+
17%
FSV Zwickau wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

BFC Preussen 1+ goals
83%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
53%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
26%
FSV Zwickau 1+ goals
87%
FSV Zwickau 2+ goals
61%
FSV Zwickau 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
43%
FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Preussen at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

FSV Zwickau away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + FSV Zwickau defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.79

FSV Zwickau attack 2.00 + BFC Preussen defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BFC Preussen scores more
34%
level
21%
FSV Zwickau scores more
45%

FSV Zwickau at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FSV Zwickau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Preussen
WLDWL
Zwickau
LWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BFC Preussen vs FSV Zwickau — Match Preview

BFC Preussen face FSV Zwickau on November 1, 2026 in this Regionalliga - Nordost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.