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BFC Dynamo vs Tasmania Berlin — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
Preview
12:00
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
9/13/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 8
82%
BFC Dynamo
model favours
82%12%6%

90% of Tasmania Berlin’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

BFC Dynamo82%
×Draw12%
Tasmania Berlin6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Dynamo
2.93
Tasmania Berlin
0.69

BFC Dynamo creates 325% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

BFC Dynamo
2.19
Tasmania Berlin
0.00

allows per match

BFC Dynamo
1.38
Tasmania Berlin
3.67

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw
94%
BFC Dynamo or Tasmania Berlin
88%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
18%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
62%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
94%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
78%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
55%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
50%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
15%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
93%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.19 + Tasmania Berlin defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.93

Tasmania Berlin attack 0.00 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more
82%
level
12%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
6%

BFC Dynamo at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tasmania Berlin score first in only 20% of matches
  • Tasmania Berlin have scored in 10 games running
  • Both teams score in 80% of Tasmania Berlin’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dynamo
WWWDL
Berlin
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BFC Dynamo host Tasmania Berlin

September 13, 2026: BFC Dynamo take on Tasmania Berlin in Regionalliga - Nordost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.