BFC Dynamo 1–4 Lichtenberg: Result & Stats

BFC Dynamo

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Lichtenberg

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportforum Rasenplatz NR2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BFC Dynamo49%

×Draw19%

Lichtenberg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BFC DynamoExpected goals in this matchLichtenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

2.10

BFC Dynamo

2.60

Lichtenberg

2.10

BFC Dynamo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.82

creates per match

2.38

1.82

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

BFC Dynamo

2.82

Lichtenberg

2.38

allows per match

BFC Dynamo

1.82

Lichtenberg

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par

Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

Lichtenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw

68%

BFC Dynamo or Lichtenberg

81%

Draw or Lichtenberg

51%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+

30%

Lichtenberg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals

92%

BFC Dynamo 2+ goals

73%

BFC Dynamo 3+ goals

47%

Lichtenberg 1+ goals

88%

Lichtenberg 2+ goals

62%

Lichtenberg 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)

61%

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.82 + Lichtenberg defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.60

Lichtenberg attack 2.38 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more

49%

level

19%

Lichtenberg scores more

32%

BFC Dynamo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

BFC

Lichtenberg

Manager: Dennis Kutrieb

Manager: R. Raab