BFC Dynamo 2–1 Eilenburg: Result & Stats

BFC Dynamo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eilenburg

A. Jarosch 76' (OG)

L. Fritzsche 24'

W. Kallenbach 5'

10/26/2025

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 13Sportforum Hohenschönhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BFC Dynamo60%

×Draw20%

Eilenburg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BFC DynamoExpected goals in this matchEilenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.19

BFC Dynamo

2.20

Eilenburg

1.19

BFC Dynamo creates 85% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

2.19

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

BFC Dynamo

2.19

Eilenburg

1.00

allows per match

BFC Dynamo

1.38

Eilenburg

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par

Eilenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

Eilenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw

80%

BFC Dynamo or Eilenburg

80%

Draw or Eilenburg

40%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+

37%

Eilenburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals

89%

BFC Dynamo 2+ goals

64%

BFC Dynamo 3+ goals

37%

Eilenburg 1+ goals

70%

Eilenburg 2+ goals

33%

Eilenburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)

75%

Eilenburg (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Eilenburg away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.19 + Eilenburg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.20

Eilenburg attack 1.00 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more

60%

level

20%

Eilenburg scores more

20%

BFC Dynamo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

W. Kallenbach

24'

L. Fritzsche

76'

A. JaroschOwn goal

BFC

Eilenburg

Manager: Dennis Kutrieb

Manager: S. Prüfer