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BFC Dynamo vs BFC Preussen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
CANC
17:00
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Sportforum Waldstadt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BFC Dynamo54%
×Draw20%
BFC Preussen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Dynamo
2.29
BFC Preussen
1.54

BFC Dynamo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

BFC Dynamo
2.82
BFC Preussen
1.25

allows per match

BFC Dynamo
1.82
BFC Preussen
1.75

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw
74%
BFC Dynamo or BFC Preussen
80%
Draw or BFC Preussen
46%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
33%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
90%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
66%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
40%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
79%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
45%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
68%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.82 + BFC Preussen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

BFC Preussen attack 1.25 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more
54%
level
20%
BFC Preussen scores more
26%

BFC Dynamo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BFC Dynamo host BFC Preussen

January 10, 2024: BFC Dynamo take on BFC Preussen in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

BFC Dynamo host BFC Preussen at Sportforum Waldstadt.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.