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BFC Dynamo vs BAK '07 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BAK '07
BAK '07
7/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

BFC Dynamo49%
×Draw19%
BAK '0732%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Dynamo
2.50
BAK '07
2.00

BFC Dynamo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

BFC Dynamo
2.82
BAK '07
2.17

allows per match

BFC Dynamo
1.82
BAK '07
2.17

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par
BAK '07+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

BAK '07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw
68%
BFC Dynamo or BAK '07
81%
Draw or BAK '07
51%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
30%
BAK '07 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
92%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
71%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
45%
BAK '07 1+ goals
86%
BAK '07 2+ goals
59%
BAK '07 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
61%
BAK '07 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

BAK '07 away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.82 + BAK '07 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.50

BAK '07 attack 2.17 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more
49%
level
19%
BAK '07 scores more
32%

BFC Dynamo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

BFC
BAK
Sven Korner
Manager: Sven Korner
V. Uluç
Manager: V. Uluç

Match Recap: BFC Dynamo vs BAK '07

BFC Dynamo beat BAK '07 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 17, 2026.