Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BFC Daugavpils vs Jelgava — Virsliga 2019

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jelgava
Jelgava
11/9/2019VirsligaVirsliga · Round 36Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

BFC Daugavpils45%
×Draw26%
Jelgava29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Daugavpils
1.47
Jelgava
1.13

BFC Daugavpils creates 30% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 29 away

creates per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.28
Jelgava
0.83

allows per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.42
Jelgava
1.66

finishing

BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par
Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Daugavpils ↓

Jelgava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

BFC Daugavpils or draw
71%
BFC Daugavpils or Jelgava
74%
Draw or Jelgava
55%

Winning margin

BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
22%
Jelgava wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
77%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
43%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
18%
Jelgava 1+ goals
68%
Jelgava 2+ goals
31%
Jelgava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
61%
Jelgava (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Daugavpils at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

Jelgava away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Daugavpils attack 1.28 + Jelgava defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.47

Jelgava attack 0.83 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BFC Daugavpils scores more
45%
level
26%
Jelgava scores more
29%

BFC Daugavpils at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BFC Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BFC Daugavpils vs Jelgava

BFC Daugavpils and Jelgava drew 2-2 in Virsliga on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadions Celtnieks.