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BFA vs TransINVEST Vilnius — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
11/1/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 26BFA Maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

BFA23%
×Draw21%
TransINVEST Vilnius56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.35
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.18

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 61% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 29 away

creates per match

BFA
1.67
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.86

allows per match

BFA
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.03

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

BFA or draw
44%
BFA or TransINVEST Vilnius
79%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
77%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
10%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
74%
BFA 2+ goals
39%
BFA 3+ goals
15%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
89%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
64%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
29%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.86 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

BFA scores more
23%
level
21%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
56%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BFA vs TransINVEST Vilnius

TransINVEST Vilnius beat BFA 4-1 in 1 Lyga on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at BFA Maniežas in Vilnius.