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BFA vs Minija — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Minija
Minija
5/3/20251 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 7Sirvintu stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

BFA45%
×Draw23%
Minija32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.73
Minija
1.42

BFA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

BFA
1.67
Minija
1.33

allows per match

BFA
1.50
Minija
1.78

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Minija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BFA or draw
68%
BFA or Minija
77%
Draw or Minija
55%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
24%
Minija wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
82%
BFA 2+ goals
52%
BFA 3+ goals
25%
Minija 1+ goals
76%
Minija 2+ goals
41%
Minija 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
59%
Minija (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

Minija away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + Minija defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Minija attack 1.33 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BFA scores more
45%
level
23%
Minija scores more
32%

BFA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: BFA 1–0 Minija

BFA beat Minija 1-0 in 1 Lyga on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Sirvintu stadionas in Sirvintos.