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Beziers vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Beziers
Beziers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
1/28/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade de la Mediterranee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beziers30%
×Draw32%
Paris FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beziers
0.88
Paris FC
1.02

Paris FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

creates per match

Beziers
0.68
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Beziers
1.00
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Beziers+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beziers ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Beziers or draw
62%
Beziers or Paris FC
68%
Draw or Paris FC
70%

Winning margin

Beziers wins by 2+
10%
Paris FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Beziers 1+ goals
59%
Beziers 2+ goals
22%
Beziers 3+ goals
6%
Paris FC 1+ goals
64%
Paris FC 2+ goals
27%
Paris FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Beziers (draw refunded)
45%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beziers at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beziers attack 0.68 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Beziers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beziers scores more
30%
level
32%
Paris FC scores more
38%

Paris FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Beziers 0–1 Paris FC

Paris FC beat Beziers 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Mediterranee in Beziers.