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Beziers vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Beziers
Beziers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
3/29/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade de la Mediterranee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beziers40%
×Draw30%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beziers
1.14
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
0.95

Beziers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Beziers
0.68
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
0.90

allows per match

Beziers
1.00
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
1.60

finishing

Beziers+0.00on par
Gazelec FC Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beziers ↓

Gazelec FC Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Beziers or draw
70%
Beziers or Gazelec FC Ajaccio
70%
Draw or Gazelec FC Ajaccio
60%

Winning margin

Beziers wins by 2+
17%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Beziers 1+ goals
68%
Beziers 2+ goals
32%
Beziers 3+ goals
11%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 1+ goals
61%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2+ goals
25%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beziers (draw refunded)
57%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beziers at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Gazelec FC Ajaccio away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beziers attack 0.68 + Gazelec FC Ajaccio defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Gazelec FC Ajaccio attack 0.90 + Beziers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beziers scores more
40%
level
30%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio scores more
30%

Beziers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beziers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beziers vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Beziers and Gazelec FC Ajaccio drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Mediterranee in Beziers.