Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beziers vs Auxerre — Ligue 2 2018

Beziers
Beziers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Auxerre
Auxerre
3/15/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 29Stade de la Mediterranee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beziers30%
×Draw30%
Auxerre40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beziers
0.94
Auxerre
1.15

Auxerre creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 91 away

creates per match

Beziers
0.68
Auxerre
1.29

allows per match

Beziers
1.00
Auxerre
1.20

finishing

Beziers+0.00on par
Auxerre+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beziers ↓

Auxerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Beziers or draw
60%
Beziers or Auxerre
70%
Draw or Auxerre
70%

Winning margin

Beziers wins by 2+
11%
Auxerre wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Beziers 1+ goals
61%
Beziers 2+ goals
24%
Beziers 3+ goals
7%
Auxerre 1+ goals
68%
Auxerre 2+ goals
32%
Auxerre 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beziers (draw refunded)
42%
Auxerre (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beziers at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Auxerre away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beziers attack 0.68 + Auxerre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Auxerre attack 1.29 + Beziers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beziers scores more
30%
level
30%
Auxerre scores more
40%

Auxerre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Beziers 1–0 Auxerre

Beziers beat Auxerre 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Mediterranee in Beziers.