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Bezau vs Rheindorf Altach II — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Bezau
Bezau
FT
1 – 2
Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II
8/27/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 9Sportplatz Vfb Bezau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bezau34%
×Draw21%
Rheindorf Altach II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezau
1.83
Rheindorf Altach II
2.14

Rheindorf Altach II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bezau
2.04
Rheindorf Altach II
2.56

allows per match

Bezau
1.72
Rheindorf Altach II
1.63

finishing

Bezau+0.00on par
Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezau ↓

Rheindorf Altach II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bezau or draw
55%
Bezau or Rheindorf Altach II
79%
Draw or Rheindorf Altach II
66%

Winning margin

Bezau wins by 2+
17%
Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bezau 1+ goals
84%
Bezau 2+ goals
54%
Bezau 3+ goals
28%
Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals
88%
Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals
63%
Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bezau (draw refunded)
43%
Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezau at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.72 · 47 matches

Rheindorf Altach II away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezau attack 2.04 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rheindorf Altach II attack 2.56 + Bezau defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bezau scores more
34%
level
21%
Rheindorf Altach II scores more
45%

Rheindorf Altach II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rheindorf Altach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bezau vs Rheindorf Altach II

Rheindorf Altach II beat Bezau 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 27, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Vfb Bezau in Bezau.