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Bezau vs Admira Dornbirn — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Bezau
Bezau
FT
3 – 1
Admira Dornbirn
Admira Dornbirn
10/19/2019Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 14Sportplatz Vfb Bezau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bezau41%
×Draw21%
Admira Dornbirn38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezau
1.96
Admira Dornbirn
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bezau
2.04
Admira Dornbirn
2.02

allows per match

Bezau
1.72
Admira Dornbirn
1.87

finishing

Bezau+0.00on par
Admira Dornbirn+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezau ↓

Admira Dornbirn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bezau or draw
62%
Bezau or Admira Dornbirn
79%
Draw or Admira Dornbirn
59%

Winning margin

Bezau wins by 2+
22%
Admira Dornbirn wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bezau 1+ goals
86%
Bezau 2+ goals
58%
Bezau 3+ goals
31%
Admira Dornbirn 1+ goals
85%
Admira Dornbirn 2+ goals
56%
Admira Dornbirn 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Bezau (draw refunded)
52%
Admira Dornbirn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezau at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.72 · 47 matches

Admira Dornbirn away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.87 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezau attack 2.04 + Admira Dornbirn defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

Admira Dornbirn attack 2.02 + Bezau defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bezau scores more
41%
level
21%
Admira Dornbirn scores more
38%

Bezau at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bezau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Bezau 3–1 Admira Dornbirn

Bezau beat Admira Dornbirn 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Vfb Bezau in Bezau.