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Bezanija vs Radnicki 1923 — Prva Liga 2018

Bezanija
Bezanija
FT
0 – 1
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
9/2/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 5Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bezanija44%
×Draw28%
Radnicki 192328%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezanija
1.31
Radnicki 1923
0.99

Bezanija creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bezanija
1.61
Radnicki 1923
0.86

allows per match

Bezanija
1.11
Radnicki 1923
1.02

finishing

Bezanija+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezanija ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bezanija or draw
72%
Bezanija or Radnicki 1923
72%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
56%

Winning margin

Bezanija wins by 2+
20%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bezanija 1+ goals
73%
Bezanija 2+ goals
38%
Bezanija 3+ goals
14%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
63%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
26%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bezanija (draw refunded)
61%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezanija at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezanija attack 1.61 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Radnicki 1923 attack 0.86 + Bezanija defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bezanija scores more
44%
level
28%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
28%

Bezanija at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bezanija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Bezanija 0–1 Radnicki 1923

Radnicki 1923 beat Bezanija 1-0 in Prva Liga on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd).