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Bezana vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Bezana
Bezana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bezana52%
×Draw24%
Ribamontán al Mar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezana
1.68
Ribamontán al Mar
1.04

Bezana creates 62% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 28 away

creates per match

Bezana
1.35
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Bezana
1.13
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Bezana+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezana ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bezana or draw
77%
Bezana or Ribamontán al Mar
76%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
48%

Winning margin

Bezana wins by 2+
28%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bezana 1+ goals
81%
Bezana 2+ goals
50%
Bezana 3+ goals
24%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
65%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
28%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bezana (draw refunded)
69%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezana attack 1.35 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Bezana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bezana scores more
52%
level
24%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
23%

Bezana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Bezana 1–0 Ribamontán al Mar

Bezana beat Ribamontán al Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Santa Cruz de Bezana.