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Bezana vs Cartes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Bezana
Bezana
CANC
00:00
Cartes
Cartes
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Bezana53%
×Draw25%
Cartes22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezana
1.56
Cartes
0.90

Bezana creates 73% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 91 away

creates per match

Bezana
1.35
Cartes
0.66

allows per match

Bezana
1.13
Cartes
1.77

finishing

Bezana+0.00on par
Cartes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezana ↓

Cartes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bezana or draw
78%
Bezana or Cartes
75%
Draw or Cartes
47%

Winning margin

Bezana wins by 2+
28%
Cartes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bezana 1+ goals
79%
Bezana 2+ goals
46%
Bezana 3+ goals
21%
Cartes 1+ goals
59%
Cartes 2+ goals
23%
Cartes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bezana (draw refunded)
71%
Cartes (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Cartes away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezana attack 1.35 + Cartes defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cartes attack 0.66 + Bezana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bezana scores more
53%
level
25%
Cartes scores more
22%

Bezana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bezana face Cartes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 returns with Bezana hosting Cartes. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bezana host Cartes at Estadio Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.