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Bezana vs Atlético Mineros — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Bezana
Bezana
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
9/9/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Campo De Fútbol Municipal De Bezana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bezana51%
×Draw25%
Atlético Mineros24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezana
1.61
Atlético Mineros
1.02

Bezana creates 58% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bezana
1.35
Atlético Mineros
0.91

allows per match

Bezana
1.13
Atlético Mineros
1.88

finishing

Bezana+0.00on par
Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezana ↓

Atlético Mineros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bezana or draw
76%
Bezana or Atlético Mineros
75%
Draw or Atlético Mineros
49%

Winning margin

Bezana wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bezana 1+ goals
80%
Bezana 2+ goals
48%
Bezana 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bezana (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezana attack 1.35 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Bezana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bezana scores more
51%
level
25%
Atlético Mineros scores more
24%

Bezana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bezana vs Atlético Mineros

Bezana beat Atlético Mineros 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Municipal De Bezana in Santa Cruz de Bezana.