Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 0–1 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fenerbahçe

1/14/2026

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı18%

×Draw30%

Fenerbahçe52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beyoğlu Yeni ÇarşıExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.60

1.25

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

0.60

Fenerbahçe

1.25

Fenerbahçe creates 108% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

0.50

creates per match

2.00

0.50

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

0.50

Fenerbahçe

2.00

allows per match

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

0.50

Fenerbahçe

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı+0.00on par

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–120%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı or draw

48%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı or Fenerbahçe

70%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

82%

Winning margin

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı wins by 2+

4%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1+ goals

45%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 2+ goals

12%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 3+ goals

2%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

71%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

36%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı (draw refunded)

25%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı attack 0.50 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı scores more

18%

level

30%

Fenerbahçe scores more

52%

Fenerbahçe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff