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Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı vs Çengelköyspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Çengelköyspor
Çengelköyspor
9/12/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundEsenler Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı57%
×Draw30%
Çengelköyspor12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.25
Çengelköyspor
0.42

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı creates 198% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
0.50
Çengelköyspor
0.33

allows per match

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
0.50
Çengelköyspor
2.00

finishing

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı+0.00on par
Çengelköyspor+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı ↓

Çengelköyspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı or draw
88%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı or Çengelköyspor
70%
Draw or Çengelköyspor
43%

Winning margin

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı wins by 2+
27%
Çengelköyspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1+ goals
71%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 2+ goals
36%
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 3+ goals
13%
Çengelköyspor 1+ goals
34%
Çengelköyspor 2+ goals
7%
Çengelköyspor 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı (draw refunded)
82%
Çengelköyspor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Çengelköyspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı attack 0.50 + Çengelköyspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Çengelköyspor attack 0.33 + Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı scores more
57%
level
30%
Çengelköyspor scores more
12%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 0–1 Çengelköyspor

Çengelköyspor beat Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Esenler Stadyumu in İstanbul.