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Beykoz Anadolu vs Yeni Malatyaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
11/26/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 1515 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu63%
×Draw20%
Yeni Malatyaspor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz Anadolu
2.19
Yeni Malatyaspor
1.03

Beykoz Anadolu creates 113% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 33 away

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.24
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.70

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.36
Yeni Malatyaspor
3.15

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw
83%
Beykoz Anadolu or Yeni Malatyaspor
80%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
37%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
40%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
89%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
64%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
37%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
64%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
28%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
79%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.24 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.19

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more
63%
level
20%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
17%

Beykoz Anadolu at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Beykoz Anadolu 0–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

Beykoz Anadolu and Yeni Malatyaspor drew 0-0 in 1. Lig on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at 15 Temmuz Stadı in İstanbul.