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Beykoz Anadolu vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
10/29/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu15%
×Draw18%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz Anadolu
1.00
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
2.33

Yalova Yeşilovaspor creates 133% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.33
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
2.33

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu
2.33
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
0.67

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par
Yalova Yeşilovaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Yalova Yeşilovaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw
33%
Beykoz Anadolu or Yalova Yeşilovaspor
82%
Draw or Yalova Yeşilovaspor
85%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
5%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
63%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
26%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
8%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1+ goals
90%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2+ goals
67%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
18%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Yalova Yeşilovaspor away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.33 + Yalova Yeşilovaspor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Yalova Yeşilovaspor attack 2.33 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more
15%
level
18%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor scores more
67%

Yalova Yeşilovaspor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Yalova Yeşilovaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beykoz Anadolu vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor

Yalova Yeşilovaspor beat Beykoz Anadolu 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 29, 2025.