Beykoz Anadolu 0–2 Göztepe: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Beykoz Anadolu

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Göztepe

3/25/2023

1. Lig · Round 2815 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu29%

×Draw27%

Göztepe44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beykoz AnadoluExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.35

Beykoz Anadolu

1.05

Göztepe

1.35

Göztepe creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

1.24

creates per match

1.33

1.36

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu

1.24

Göztepe

1.33

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu

1.36

Göztepe

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw

56%

Beykoz Anadolu or Göztepe

73%

Draw or Göztepe

71%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

11%

Göztepe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

65%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

28%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

9%

Göztepe 1+ goals

74%

Göztepe 2+ goals

39%

Göztepe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

40%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.24 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Göztepe attack 1.33 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

29%

level

27%

Göztepe scores more

44%

Göztepe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff