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Beykoz Anadolu vs Bayburt İÖİ — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bayburt İÖİ
Bayburt İÖİ
11/3/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundTuzla Belediyesi Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu41%
×Draw25%
Bayburt İÖİ34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz Anadolu
1.50
Bayburt İÖİ
1.33

Beykoz Anadolu creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.33
Bayburt İÖİ
0.33

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu
2.33
Bayburt İÖİ
1.67

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par
Bayburt İÖİ+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Bayburt İÖİ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw
66%
Beykoz Anadolu or Bayburt İÖİ
75%
Draw or Bayburt İÖİ
59%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
20%
Bayburt İÖİ wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
78%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
44%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
19%
Bayburt İÖİ 1+ goals
74%
Bayburt İÖİ 2+ goals
38%
Bayburt İÖİ 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
55%
Bayburt İÖİ (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Bayburt İÖİ away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.33 + Bayburt İÖİ defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bayburt İÖİ attack 0.33 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more
41%
level
25%
Bayburt İÖİ scores more
34%

Beykoz Anadolu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Beykoz Anadolu 2–1 Bayburt İÖİ

Beykoz Anadolu beat Bayburt İÖİ 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 3, 2020.

The match was played at Tuzla Belediyesi Stadı in İstanbul.