Beykoz Anadolu 1–5 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Beykoz Anadolu

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Başakşehir

1/13/2021

Türkiye Kupası · Round of 16Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu24%

×Draw22%

Başakşehir54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beykoz AnadoluExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.94

Beykoz Anadolu

1.24

Başakşehir

1.94

Başakşehir creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

1.54

2.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu

1.33

Başakşehir

1.54

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu

2.33

Başakşehir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw

46%

Beykoz Anadolu or Başakşehir

78%

Draw or Başakşehir

76%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

10%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

71%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

35%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

13%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

86%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

58%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

31%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.33 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

24%

level

22%

Başakşehir scores more

54%

Başakşehir at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff