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Beykoz Anadolu vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
8/20/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 215 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu36%
×Draw27%
Bandırmaspor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz Anadolu
1.27
Bandırmaspor
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 110 away

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.24
Bandırmaspor
1.27

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.36
Bandırmaspor
1.31

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw
62%
Beykoz Anadolu or Bandırmaspor
73%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
64%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
16%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
72%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
36%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
14%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
73%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
38%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
49%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.24 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more
36%
level
27%
Bandırmaspor scores more
38%

Bandırmaspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Beykoz Anadolu 0–2 Bandırmaspor

Bandırmaspor beat Beykoz Anadolu 2-0 in 1. Lig on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at 15 Temmuz Stadı in İstanbul.