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Beykoz Anadolu vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
10/28/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundVefa Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu39%
×Draw24%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz Anadolu
1.56
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.33
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.70

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu
2.33
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1.80

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par
68 Aksaray Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

68 Aksaray Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw
63%
Beykoz Anadolu or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
76%
Draw or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
61%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
19%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
79%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
46%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
21%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1+ goals
78%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2+ goals
45%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
51%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

68 Aksaray Belediyespor away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.33 + 68 Aksaray Belediyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

68 Aksaray Belediyespor attack 0.70 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more
39%
level
24%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor scores more
37%

Beykoz Anadolu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beykoz Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beykoz Anadolu vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

68 Aksaray Belediyespor beat Beykoz Anadolu 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 28, 2021.

The match was played at Vefa Stadı in İstanbul.