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Bettembourg vs Union Titus Petange — National Division 2018

Bettembourg
Bettembourg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
2/23/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 18Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg31%
×Draw25%
Union Titus Petange45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.27
Union Titus Petange
1.59

Union Titus Petange creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
0.94
Union Titus Petange
1.25

allows per match

Bettembourg
1.94
Union Titus Petange
1.60

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Union Titus Petange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
55%
Bettembourg or Union Titus Petange
75%
Draw or Union Titus Petange
69%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
13%
Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
72%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
36%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
14%
Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
80%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
47%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
41%
Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.60 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Union Titus Petange attack 1.25 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bettembourg scores more
31%
level
25%
Union Titus Petange scores more
45%

Union Titus Petange at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bettembourg vs Union Titus Petange

Union Titus Petange beat Bettembourg 3-1 in National Division on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Bettembourg.