Bettembourg 0–4 UNA Strassen: Result & Stats

Bettembourg

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

UNA Strassen

12/1/2024

National Division · Round 14Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg26%

×Draw24%

UNA Strassen49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BettembourgExpected goals in this matchUNA Strassen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.69

Bettembourg

1.17

UNA Strassen

1.69

UNA Strassen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 112 away

0.94

creates per match

1.43

1.94

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Bettembourg

0.94

UNA Strassen

1.43

allows per match

Bettembourg

1.94

UNA Strassen

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par

UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

UNA Strassen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw

51%

Bettembourg or UNA Strassen

76%

Draw or UNA Strassen

74%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+

11%

UNA Strassen wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals

69%

Bettembourg 2+ goals

33%

Bettembourg 3+ goals

11%

UNA Strassen 1+ goals

82%

UNA Strassen 2+ goals

50%

UNA Strassen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)

35%

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bettembourg scores more

26%

level

24%

UNA Strassen scores more

49%

UNA Strassen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff