Bettembourg 3–0 Swift Hesperange: Result & Stats

Bettembourg

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Swift Hesperange

9/1/2024

National Division · Round 5Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg19%

×Draw21%

Swift Hesperange60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BettembourgExpected goals in this matchSwift Hesperange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.02

Bettembourg

1.02

Swift Hesperange

2.02

Swift Hesperange creates 98% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 90 away

0.94

creates per match

2.10

1.94

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Bettembourg

0.94

Swift Hesperange

2.10

allows per match

Bettembourg

1.94

Swift Hesperange

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Swift Hesperange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw

40%

Bettembourg or Swift Hesperange

79%

Draw or Swift Hesperange

81%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+

7%

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals

64%

Bettembourg 2+ goals

27%

Bettembourg 3+ goals

8%

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

87%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

60%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)

23%

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bettembourg scores more

19%

level

21%

Swift Hesperange scores more

60%

Swift Hesperange at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff