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Bettembourg vs Rodange 91 — National Division 2018

Bettembourg
Bettembourg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rodange 91
Rodange 91
4/19/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 25Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg43%
×Draw24%
Rodange 9133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.67
Rodange 91
1.45

Bettembourg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
0.94
Rodange 91
0.96

allows per match

Bettembourg
1.94
Rodange 91
2.39

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
Rodange 91+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Rodange 91 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
67%
Bettembourg or Rodange 91
76%
Draw or Rodange 91
57%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
22%
Rodange 91 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
81%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
50%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
23%
Rodange 91 1+ goals
77%
Rodange 91 2+ goals
42%
Rodange 91 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
56%
Rodange 91 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Rodange 91 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.39 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + Rodange 91 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rodange 91 attack 0.96 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bettembourg scores more
43%
level
24%
Rodange 91 scores more
33%

Bettembourg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bettembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bettembourg vs Rodange 91

Rodange 91 beat Bettembourg 2-1 in National Division on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Bettembourg.