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Bettembourg vs Mamer — Cup 2020

Bettembourg
Bettembourgadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Mamer
Mamer
10/31/2021CupCup · Round of 32Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bettembourg24%
×Draw21%
Mamer56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.33
Mamer
2.13

Mamer creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
1.50
Mamer
1.50

allows per match

Bettembourg
2.75
Mamer
1.17

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
Mamer+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Mamer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
44%
Bettembourg or Mamer
79%
Draw or Mamer
76%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
10%
Mamer wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
74%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
38%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
15%
Mamer 1+ goals
88%
Mamer 2+ goals
63%
Mamer 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
30%
Mamer (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Mamer away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 1.50 + Mamer defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mamer attack 1.50 + Bettembourg defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bettembourg scores more
24%
level
21%
Mamer scores more
56%

Mamer at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mamer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Bettembourg 1–0 Mamer

Bettembourg beat Mamer 1-0 in Cup on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Bettembourg.