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Bettembourg vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Bettembourg
Bettembourg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
8/4/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 1Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg18%
×Draw20%
F91 Dudelange62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.03
F91 Dudelange
2.12

F91 Dudelange creates 106% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 112 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
0.94
F91 Dudelange
2.29

allows per match

Bettembourg
1.94
F91 Dudelange
1.13

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
38%
Bettembourg or F91 Dudelange
80%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
82%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
6%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
64%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
28%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
9%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
88%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
62%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
22%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bettembourg scores more
18%
level
20%
F91 Dudelange scores more
62%

F91 Dudelange at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Bettembourg 0–3 F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Bettembourg 3-0 in National Division on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Bettembourg.