Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bettembourg vs Etzella Ettelbruck — Cup 2020

Bettembourg
Bettembourg
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruckadvanced
4/6/2022CupCup · Round of 16Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bettembourg16%
×Draw16%
Etzella Ettelbruck68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.47
Etzella Ettelbruck
3.04

Etzella Ettelbruck creates 107% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
1.50
Etzella Ettelbruck
3.33

allows per match

Bettembourg
2.75
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.44

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
32%
Bettembourg or Etzella Ettelbruck
84%
Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck
84%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
7%
Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
77%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
43%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
18%
Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
95%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
80%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
19%
Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 1.50 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 3.33 + Bettembourg defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bettembourg scores more
16%
level
16%
Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
68%

Etzella Ettelbruck at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Etzella Ettelbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Bettembourg 2–4 Etzella Ettelbruck

Etzella Ettelbruck beat Bettembourg 4-2 in Cup on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Bettembourg.