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Bettembourg vs Atert Bissen — National Division 2018

Bettembourg
Bettembourg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atert Bissen
Atert Bissen
5/29/2025National DivisionNational Division · FinalsTerrain Jos Bloes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg18%
×Draw21%
Atert Bissen62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.03
Atert Bissen
2.09

Atert Bissen creates 103% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
0.94
Atert Bissen
2.25

allows per match

Bettembourg
1.94
Atert Bissen
1.13

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
Atert Bissen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Atert Bissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
38%
Bettembourg or Atert Bissen
79%
Draw or Atert Bissen
82%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
6%
Atert Bissen wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
64%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
28%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
9%
Atert Bissen 1+ goals
88%
Atert Bissen 2+ goals
62%
Atert Bissen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
23%
Atert Bissen (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Atert Bissen away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + Atert Bissen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Atert Bissen attack 2.25 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bettembourg scores more
18%
level
21%
Atert Bissen scores more
62%

Atert Bissen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atert Bissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Bettembourg 0–1 Atert Bissen

Atert Bissen beat Bettembourg 1-0 in National Division on May 29, 2025.

The match was played at Terrain Jos Bloes in Bascharage.