Betim 0–3 Varginha EC: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

Betim

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Varginha EC

5/28/2022

Mineiro - 2 · Round 8Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Betim51%

×Draw28%

Varginha EC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BetimExpected goals in this matchVarginha EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.81

Betim

1.39

Varginha EC

0.81

Betim creates 72% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

1.32

creates per match

0.92

0.71

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Betim

1.32

Varginha EC

0.92

allows per match

Betim

0.71

Varginha EC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Betim+0.00on par

Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim ↓

Varginha EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Betim or draw

78%

Betim or Varginha EC

72%

Draw or Varginha EC

49%

Winning margin

Betim wins by 2+

25%

Varginha EC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Betim 1+ goals

75%

Betim 2+ goals

40%

Betim 3+ goals

16%

Varginha EC 1+ goals

56%

Varginha EC 2+ goals

19%

Varginha EC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Betim (draw refunded)

70%

Varginha EC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim attack 1.32 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Betim defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Betim scores more

51%

level

28%

Varginha EC scores more

22%

Betim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Betim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff