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Betim vs Itabirito — Mineiro - 2 2026

Betim
Betim
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Itabirito
Itabiritoadvanced
N. Vinicius 84'
7/1/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 2Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Betim41%
×Draw28%
Itabirito31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betim
1.29
Itabirito
1.08

Betim creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

creates per match

Betim
1.32
Itabirito
1.45

allows per match

Betim
0.71
Itabirito
1.27

finishing

Betim+0.00on par
Itabirito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim ↓

Itabirito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Betim or draw
69%
Betim or Itabirito
72%
Draw or Itabirito
59%

Winning margin

Betim wins by 2+
19%
Itabirito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Betim 1+ goals
72%
Betim 2+ goals
37%
Betim 3+ goals
14%
Itabirito 1+ goals
66%
Itabirito 2+ goals
29%
Itabirito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Betim (draw refunded)
57%
Itabirito (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Itabirito away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim attack 1.32 + Itabirito defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Itabirito attack 1.45 + Betim defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Betim scores more
41%
level
28%
Itabirito scores more
31%

Betim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Betim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
N. Vinicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Betim vs Itabirito

Itabirito beat Betim 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 1, 2023.

Goals: N. Vinicius (84').

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.