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Betim vs Guarani MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Betim
Betim
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guarani MG
Guarani MG
Caua 86'
Pedrinho 62'
5/10/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 2Estádio João Lamego Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Betim46%
×Draw29%
Guarani MG25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betim
1.23
Guarani MG
0.83

Betim creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 20 away

creates per match

Betim
1.32
Guarani MG
0.95

allows per match

Betim
0.71
Guarani MG
1.15

finishing

Betim+0.00on par
Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim ↓

Guarani MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Betim or draw
75%
Betim or Guarani MG
71%
Draw or Guarani MG
54%

Winning margin

Betim wins by 2+
20%
Guarani MG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Betim 1+ goals
71%
Betim 2+ goals
35%
Betim 3+ goals
13%
Guarani MG 1+ goals
56%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
20%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Betim (draw refunded)
65%
Guarani MG (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim attack 1.32 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + Betim defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Betim scores more
46%
level
29%
Guarani MG scores more
25%

Betim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Betim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
Pedrinho
86'
Caua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Betim vs Guarani MG

Guarani MG beat Betim 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Pedrinho (62'), Caua (86').

The match was played at Estádio João Lamego Neto in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais.