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Betim vs CAP Uberlândia — Mineiro - 2 2020

Betim
Betim
FT
2 – 0
CAP Uberlândia
CAP Uberlândia
10/31/2020Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 11Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Betim51%
×Draw30%
CAP Uberlândia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betim
1.25
CAP Uberlândia
0.65

Betim creates 92% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 5 away

creates per match

Betim
1.31
CAP Uberlândia
0.60

allows per match

Betim
0.69
CAP Uberlândia
1.20

finishing

Betim+0.00on par
CAP Uberlândia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim ↓

CAP Uberlândia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Betim or draw
81%
Betim or CAP Uberlândia
70%
Draw or CAP Uberlândia
49%

Winning margin

Betim wins by 2+
23%
CAP Uberlândia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Betim 1+ goals
71%
Betim 2+ goals
36%
Betim 3+ goals
13%
CAP Uberlândia 1+ goals
48%
CAP Uberlândia 2+ goals
14%
CAP Uberlândia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Betim (draw refunded)
72%
CAP Uberlândia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

CAP Uberlândia away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim attack 1.31 + CAP Uberlândia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

CAP Uberlândia attack 0.60 + Betim defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Betim scores more
51%
level
30%
CAP Uberlândia scores more
19%

Betim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Betim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Betim 2–0 CAP Uberlândia

Betim beat CAP Uberlândia 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.