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Betim vs Aymorés — Mineiro - 2 2026

Betim
Betim
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aymorés
Aymorés
Juninho Tardelli 76'
Klenisson 18'
7/31/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · FinalsArena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Betim52%
×Draw28%
Aymorés20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betim
1.35
Aymorés
0.71

Betim creates 90% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Betim
1.32
Aymorés
0.71

allows per match

Betim
0.71
Aymorés
1.37

finishing

Betim+0.00on par
Aymorés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim ↓

Aymorés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Betim or draw
80%
Betim or Aymorés
72%
Draw or Aymorés
48%

Winning margin

Betim wins by 2+
25%
Aymorés wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Betim 1+ goals
74%
Betim 2+ goals
39%
Betim 3+ goals
15%
Aymorés 1+ goals
51%
Aymorés 2+ goals
16%
Aymorés 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Betim (draw refunded)
73%
Aymorés (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Aymorés away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim attack 1.32 + Aymorés defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Aymorés attack 0.71 + Betim defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Betim scores more
52%
level
28%
Aymorés scores more
20%

Betim at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Betim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Klenisson
76'
Juninho Tardelli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Betim 2–0 Aymorés

Betim beat Aymorés 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 31, 2024.

Goals: Klenisson (18'), Juninho Tardelli (76').

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.