Betim U20 5–1 XV de Novembro U20: Result & Stats

Betim U20

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

XV de Novembro U20

D. Vieira 90', 86'

A. Oliveira 45+2'

J. Gualberto 43'

A. Camargo 39'

P. Vieira 58'

7/4/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 7Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Betim U2060%

×Draw20%

XV de Novembro U2020%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Betim U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Novembro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.23

Betim U20

2.23

XV de Novembro U20

1.23

Betim U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.37

creates per match

0.92

1.53

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Betim U20

1.37

XV de Novembro U20

0.92

allows per match

Betim U20

1.53

XV de Novembro U20

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Betim U20+0.00on par

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim U20 ↓

XV de Novembro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Betim U20 or draw

80%

Betim U20 or XV de Novembro U20

80%

Draw or XV de Novembro U20

40%

Winning margin

Betim U20 wins by 2+

37%

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Betim U20 1+ goals

89%

Betim U20 2+ goals

65%

Betim U20 3+ goals

38%

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals

71%

XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals

35%

XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Betim U20 (draw refunded)

75%

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim U20 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

XV de Novembro U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim U20 attack 1.37 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.23

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.92 + Betim U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Betim U20 scores more

60%

level

20%

XV de Novembro U20 scores more

20%

Betim U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Betim U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Camargo

43'

J. Gualberto

45+2'

A. Oliveira

58'

P. Vieira

86'

D. Vieira

90'

D. Vieira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff