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Betim U20 vs Santarritense U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Betim U20
Betim U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santarritense U20
Santarritense U20
I. Moreira de Paula Eduardo 77'
C. Marangoni dos Santos 73'
Kaike 65'
D. J. Heitor 58'
7/27/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 12Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Betim U2065%
×Draw20%
Santarritense U2014%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betim U20
2.04
Santarritense U20
0.83

Betim U20 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Betim U20
1.37
Santarritense U20
0.14

allows per match

Betim U20
1.53
Santarritense U20
2.71

finishing

Betim U20+0.00on par
Santarritense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim U20 ↓

Santarritense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Betim U20 or draw
86%
Betim U20 or Santarritense U20
80%
Draw or Santarritense U20
35%

Winning margin

Betim U20 wins by 2+
41%
Santarritense U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Betim U20 1+ goals
87%
Betim U20 2+ goals
60%
Betim U20 3+ goals
33%
Santarritense U20 1+ goals
56%
Santarritense U20 2+ goals
20%
Santarritense U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Betim U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim U20 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Santarritense U20 away — creates 0.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim U20 attack 1.37 + Santarritense U20 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Santarritense U20 attack 0.14 + Betim U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Betim U20 scores more
65%
level
20%
Santarritense U20 scores more
14%

Betim U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Betim U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
D. J. Heitor
65'
Kaike
73'
C. Marangoni dos Santos
77'
I. Moreira de Paula Eduardo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Betim U20 vs Santarritense U20

Betim U20 beat Santarritense U20 4-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 27, 2024.

Goals: D. J. Heitor (58'), Kaike (65'), C. Marangoni dos Santos (73'), I. Moreira de Paula Eduardo (77').

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.