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Betim U20 vs Futgol U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Betim U20
Betim U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Futgol U20
Futgol U20
7/26/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 10Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Betim U2040%
×Draw23%
Futgol U2037%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Betim U20
1.69
Futgol U20
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Betim U20
1.37
Futgol U20
1.73

allows per match

Betim U20
1.53
Futgol U20
2.00

finishing

Betim U20+0.00on par
Futgol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Betim U20 ↓

Futgol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Betim U20 or draw
63%
Betim U20 or Futgol U20
77%
Draw or Futgol U20
60%

Winning margin

Betim U20 wins by 2+
20%
Futgol U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Betim U20 1+ goals
82%
Betim U20 2+ goals
50%
Betim U20 3+ goals
24%
Futgol U20 1+ goals
80%
Futgol U20 2+ goals
48%
Futgol U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Betim U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Futgol U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Betim U20 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Futgol U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Betim U20 attack 1.37 + Futgol U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Futgol U20 attack 1.73 + Betim U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Betim U20 scores more
40%
level
23%
Futgol U20 scores more
37%

Betim U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Betim U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Betim U20 0–2 Futgol U20

Futgol U20 beat Betim U20 2-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.