Beti Onak 2–5 Subiza: Result & Stats

Beti Onak

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Subiza

3/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Beti Onak39%

×Draw26%

Subiza35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti OnakExpected goals in this matchSubiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.27

Beti Onak

1.35

Subiza

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

1.50

creates per match

1.32

1.22

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Beti Onak

1.50

Subiza

1.32

allows per match

Beti Onak

1.22

Subiza

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par

Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Subiza →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw

65%

Beti Onak or Subiza

74%

Draw or Subiza

61%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+

18%

Subiza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals

74%

Beti Onak 2+ goals

39%

Beti Onak 3+ goals

15%

Subiza 1+ goals

72%

Subiza 2+ goals

36%

Subiza 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)

53%

Subiza (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Subiza attack 1.32 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beti Onak scores more

39%

level

26%

Subiza scores more

35%

Beti Onak at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff