Beti Onak 4–2 Fontellas: Result & Stats

Beti Onak

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Fontellas

1/11/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Beti Onak69%

×Draw18%

Fontellas13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti OnakExpected goals in this matchFontellas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.90

Beti Onak

2.32

Fontellas

0.90

Beti Onak creates 158% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

1.50

creates per match

0.57

1.22

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Beti Onak

1.50

Fontellas

0.57

allows per match

Beti Onak

1.22

Fontellas

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par

Fontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Fontellas →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw

87%

Beti Onak or Fontellas

82%

Draw or Fontellas

31%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+

46%

Fontellas wins by 2+

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals

90%

Beti Onak 2+ goals

67%

Beti Onak 3+ goals

40%

Fontellas 1+ goals

59%

Fontellas 2+ goals

23%

Fontellas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)

84%

Fontellas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Fontellas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Fontellas defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.32

Fontellas attack 0.57 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Beti Onak scores more

69%

level

18%

Fontellas scores more

13%

Beti Onak at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff